President Joe Biden?
It’s late October and it seems pretty obvious to many people that Joe Biden is destined for the White House.
So it’s time for my four-year prediction.
Biden is a superior candidate in many ways. He has experience (40 years to Trump’s 4) and he is a fairly normal politician. He’s an insider. He’s predictable. He doesn’t motivate people the way Bernie or even Kamala did. But he’s safe.
It was exceedingly strange that Trump won in 2016. But now that he’s “inside” the Republican party, he’s still less of an insider than Vice President Biden.
In addition to conventional wisdom, there are good reasons to think Biden will win:
- Biden has enjoyed a lead in the polls for months.
- The 538 Blog favors him, even though Nate Silver acknowledges on Trump has a chance, as he did in 2016.
- Also, most individual polls favor Biden. The USC Dornsife poll favored Trump in 2016, but it has favored Biden for months.
- The IBD/Tipp favored Trump in 2016 for several weeks. This year, it shows Trump at a slight deficit.
- AI models almost universally predict Biden.
- Trump is the most hated president in decades. Just as much or more as they hated him in 2016, many people think he is an evil, clownish, silly, mentally unstable person.
- Democrats, understandably, hate him. But many Republicans hate him too.
- Although he has Breitbart and Drudge, most of the media hate him. Even Coulter and Drudge seems to have soured on Trump.
- Actors still hate him.
- Comedians and other artists still hate him.
Nevertheless, after winning almost $5 on Predictit, I am again putting my money on Trump/Pence. Why?
For some gut reasons, and other more scientific reasons.
- No one bet on him in the 2016 General Election or primaries (except Ann Coulter) yet Trump surprised everyone and won – by a lot. No one bets on him in the general. But it stands to reason he might surprise and win – by a lot. Why? Partly because the same thing might happen as happened with Obama – lots of new voters who aren’t reflected in past patterns. No one yet has been able to predict who and how many Trump voters will come out of the woodworks to vote for the first time.
- Michael Moore was right in 2016 and he’s predicting another Trump win.
- Scott Adams’ 2016 reason favored Trump because Trump is more persuasive. And that’s still true.
- Trump has generated more art, actually, than any other candidate I can think of, besides Obama. Some for, some against, including rap songs and SNL skits. The basic level of attention and engagement actually tells in his favor, even though much of it is negative.
- The current polls, like in 2016, could be wrong.
- The incumbant party in a re-election rarely loses; it’s still the Republicans “turn” for the White House. Whoever runs for the Democrat party in 2024 will win (predicting that 4 years in advance.) The Democrat primary is the true presidential election.
- Some polls favor Trump or he’s in spitting distance.
- The Stock Market favors Trump. as it did in 2016 The stock market S&P 500 performance has predicted when the challenger would win 86% of the time since World War II.
- Helmut Norpoth’s statistical model still predicts Trump. as it did in 2016 He’s been right 96% of the time.
- Using his 13 “Keys to the White House”, which have predicted each election since 1984, Allan Lichtman correctly picked Trump in 2016. Even though currently predicts a Biden win, I think he misjudges keys 5, 11, and 12. For 5, the economy is in a temporary, arbitrary, blue-state recession due to government lockdowns. This is hardly the same as a natural recession. For 11, Trump’s major success is destroying ISIS and the Israel accord. For 12, Trump is a charismatic entertainer and hero for his supporters.
- Internet searches reflect more Trump searches. An AI inventor said: “If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest,” Rai wrote in a report sent to CNBC.”
Only time will tell
Only time will tell whether these predictions are right or wrong. I was right in 2016, but much less confident this time around.